Yes, there is going to be a war.

After all the displays of slighted innocense put up by representatives of the Iranian government, Ahmadinejad today showed his hand for the world to see. Intended or not, he made a speech that is an unequivocal confirmation Iran is in the process of building nuclear capabilities for military ends.

From Iran Focus:

Our enemies on the one hand oppose our nation’s acquisition of nuclear energy and on the other hand want to divert the attention of other nations from the key issue of Palestine to give an opportunity to the Zionist regime to prolong its existence”, he said.

One of the main reasons why the big powers oppose Iran on the nuclear issue is for the sake of the Zionist regime, so as to let this regime live on. But they are unaware that not only will the Iranian nation continue in the path of obtaining nuclear energy till the end, it will not even for one instant divert its attention from the issue of Palestine”.
(emphasis mine - HW)

Well, that is pretty much it then, isn't it? We get the nukes, Israel dies. And the only reason the West is against us having nukes is because they want to keep Israel alive.

Like I said before: Straight from the horse mouth...

In my time I have dabbled a bit in Game Theory. Playing out given situations I was already convinced there was going to be a Gulf War I and II well before both of them had become inevitable (tooting my own horn here, I know. But that's how it really was).

I've sketchily played out the current situation. And unless I make some really outrageous assumptions, the only answer I come up with is the one nobody (including me) wants to hear: War.

It sort of goes like this: Iran under Ahmadinejad has written some cheques with regard to the 'Palestinian question' it'll have to cash sometime, somewhere. If not their credibility, along with their local superpower aspirations, will die rather undignified.

On the other side there's the West at large and Israel in particular getting more nervous as the rethoric about the final solution to the Palestinian question adds up (Of note: there hasn't been a single month gone by since Ahmedinejad came to power, without some thinly veiled therat against Israel and the West has eminated from the halls of Tehran. I think that is significant).

As tensions mount something will have to give. Ahmedinejad is painting himself into a corner where he can't *not* do something very stupid. Plus he's sorely convinced he's on a divine mission to hasten the apocalyps and the coming of the Hidden Imam. Plus(2) Iran has (A) dispersed and hidden their sites so as to make an Osirak type raid impossible and (B) has shopped around in Russia for enhanced anti air capabilities.

Israel has in the past already proven it will act ruthlessly and without regard for the niceties of international diplomacy in defense the security of it's state and citizens. No matter how you mix those ingredients you end up with the same poison.

Forget the US or the EU. The US has too much vested interest in the ME to be seen openly aiding and abetting Israel, even if they were so inclined (which I am not perfectly sure of). And I don't trust the current EU or European leadership to get over their short-sighted fatalism within now and very soon, making their acceptance of a nuclear Iran pretty much a foregone conclusion. It all boils down to the fact that at the heart of this situation there's a staring contest between Israel and Iran. And it really doesn't matter who blinks first. The result will be the same.

With Easter and Good Friday fast approaching, the Mattheus Passion has already taken posession of my stereo. Somehow I feel like shuffling through to 'Erbarme Dich'. Seems appropriate, somehow.

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