Here's part I. Just start reading from here and the rest will follow. In short Johnson argues for a mixed strategy of active contaiinment and engagement of the world jihadi movement. He sees several indicators that at this point in time the jihadis are on a disadvantage and time is not in favor of them. Therefor Johnson is optimistic about the outcome of the anti-jihadi strategy.
However, and this is where it gets interesting for us Euro's, there is on big uncertainty factor in Johnsons analysis: Europe.
Europe seems have become a kind of Jihadi paradise. It is at once a godless community of temptations both material and carnal that despises young Muslims for their otherness while admiring them for their conviction. The epitome of multicultural tolerance, it makes no serious attempt to assimilate Muslims in the name of that ideology, thereby effectively condemning them to an underclass existence while marinating them in a protest-based political culture. In orgies of self-loathing, Europeans can stand arm-in-arm with terrorists, waving signs proclaiming "We are all Hezbollah" when the target is perceived to be the US or Israel, but still react with severe repression, even unilateral military intervention, when they believe their proprietary interests are being threatened.The thing is: I can't disagree with this assessment. Europe seems to be unable to decide what it needs to fight against, because it is completely unable to define what it should be fighting *for*.
In this paradoxical land where so much is allowed but so little is approved of, legions of marginalized young men in search of clarity and greater meaning can find both in the local mosque, and acting out their fantasies of redemption requires nothing more than a trip to the local train station. Europe itself provides them with motive and opportunity, and the Jihadi terror masters with the method. Little wonder then that the fastest growing population of radicalized young Muslims seems to be found there.
Should my statement of the conditions approximate the truth and Europe be unequal to the task of dealing with it, I foresee a singularly disturbing possibility: Even if we defeat the Jihadis in the Middle East, as we seem to be doing, could Muslim Europe provide a potential refuge; a reservoir for re-infection if you will?
If so, the most serious challenge of our times may not be in the Middle East, where the current focus is, but dealing with radical Islam nurtured in the Nihilist void of the European soul. The Doom’s Day scenario is not then a new Caliphate centered on Baghdad, Damascus, Tehran, or Cairo, but one centered in Paris, Berlin, Amsterdam, or Madrid.
(via Gates of Vienna, who's baron Bodissey also has a thought or two worth knowing)