The cost of Kyoto

Just thought I'd share this with you. Make of it what you want. The Heartland Institute put together a FAQ around global climate change issues. The FAQ is in the form of a pdf and can be downloaded here. It's a relatively elaborate job, dealing with causes and likely consequences of global warming in a dispassionate way.

There's also a section on economics in there. That may seems surprising but IF human produced CO2 drives global warming, then increases in anthropogenic CO2 emissions happen because of economic growth. Or in reverse: Limiting our CO2 emissions will necessarily put a dent in our economic growth.

To illustrate this, let me quote from the FAQ:
What will the Kyoto Protocol do to reduce warming?
• The Kyoto Protocol, most observers agree, will have virtually no effect on temperature increase, as it imposes no restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions upon major developing nations like China and India. These nations have publicly refused to accept any restrictions now or in the future.


What do the better economic models say Kyoto will do?
• Recent research from general equilibrium models suggests strongly negative impacts on European economies from adopting Kyoto targets (or going beyond the targets, as in the case of the United Kingdom). One model shows the economic effects by 2010 of adopting Kyoto targets as follows (remember that the Protocol achieves virtually nothing in reducing global temperature):


-5.2% GDP

-1,800,000 jobs


-5.0% GDP

-1,000,000 jobs


-4.5% GDP

-1,000,000 jobs


-3.8% GDP

-240,000 jobs

Just so you know. Given that the total Dutch workforce is around 5-6 million, Kyoto will be responsible for 4 - 5% unemployment all by itself, according to the Heartland Institute numbers. That is on top of the unemployment we would have had anyways. And the net effect of that sacrifice will be nill, zero, zip, zilch. What a waste of money and resources.


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