EU Observer is convinced the next referendum will deliver the desirable (and only possible) result:
Recent opinion polls suggest that the treaty will be accepted by Irish voters this time round, in part due to the devastating consequences of the economic crisis on the small country, which has made citizens nervous of rocking the EU boat.This after Irish Teoseach Cowen gained a 'text designed to make the Lisbon Treaty more palatable to the Irish people' (note the wording of that sentence).
Mr Cowen said Ireland had got its two key demands from the meeting - that treaty guarantees on interpretations of the treaty in the areas of tax, neutrality and ethical issues were agreed and that they will eventually be enshrined into EU law.So the upshot really is, that the Irish have not got what they asked, they just got the promise that maybe they will get their wish, but only after they accept the
"We have agreement that the legally binding guarantees will be incorporated in a protocol in an EU treaty after the entry into force of Lisbon," said the Irish leader who had two special meetings with UK prime minister Gordon Brown to secure the deal.
But since every other leader who managed ratification of the Turnip will not risk renegotiation of the treaty (with the risk of demands for a referendum attached to it), this promise is as empty as a slice of intergalactic space.
At least some in Ireland are paying attention. Via EU Referendum, we have Socialist MEP for Dublin, Joe Higgins, insisting that the protocols are an "elaborate charade" meant to distract attention away from the key issues. "The fundamentals have still to be debated."
In the mean time EU Observer happily burbles that
The summit conclusions say that the guarantees are "fully compatible with the Treaty of Lisbon and will not necessitate any ratification of that Treaty."Which is a rather circumspect way of saying that the Turnip itself has not changed one iota and what the Irish have in hand is, in fact, the empty promise referred to earlier.
As Mr. North puts it (emphasis is mine):
[O]ne wonders whether the Irish will even accept the assurances so far given, bearing in mind that any member state could refuse to ratify them after the next referendum, thus negating the whole deal after it is too late to block the treaty.So it all comes down to this: Much like the rest of the EUnion, the Emerald Isle is afflicted with a 'leader' who is convinced his subjects are this gullible, this uninterested in their sovereignty, this eager to give up control of their lives to a foreign government.
What would be interesting, therefore, is whether the Irish would be prepared to refuse to agree to Lisbon until after the protocols have been ratified – which could be some years hence. That would certainly put Cameron in the frame as his new administration would have no excuse whatsoever for refusing a UK referendum.
Had this been a 150 years ago, at dawn shots would be ringing out all over Europe, while newspapers celebrated the demise of those that would sell us out to the French and/or Germans. But this isn't, and we are much more civilized now, aren't we? Who'd ever have thunk that the two biggest losers of both WW1 and WW2 would end up being on top?
So, come October, it is yet again up to the Irish to vote for all those that were denied their voice. And THE question is: Will they take the bait? Or will they sniff at it, and notice the rubbery, fake smell?
[UPDATE001] On a slightly related note: Peter Hitchens tells us that The Eurosceptics are just as phoney as President Blair.
[T]his is why I hate the people in politics and the media who call themselves ‘Eurosceptics’. What are they for? What good have they done? They stand about, mainly in the Unconservative Party, claiming to be concerned about the way the EU is swallowing this country.Exactly!!!
But they refuse to take the one step that would actually make a difference. They will not call for this country to leave the EU. You will have to ask them why not. There is no reason Britain [Or The Netherlands - KV] could not exist outside the EU, which sells more to us than it buys from us, drags us into trade disputes with the USA which are not in our interest, steals our fish, chokes our small business, mucks up our farms and milks us each year of incalculably large sums of money we could spend better ourselves.