Dutch Elections: Exit poll shows PVV third largest

From DutchNews.nl: Exit poll puts VVD and Labour both on 31 seats, PVV is third with 22.
The definitive exit poll from the three combined news organisations Nos, RTL and ANP puts the right-wing Liberals VVD and Labour both on 31 seats in the new parliament. This represents a gain of nine seats for the VVD and a loss of two for Labour.

The poll puts Geert Wilders' anti-Islam PVV on 22 seats - up from nine at present, and well above opinion poll forecasts.

Outgoing prime minister Jan Peter Balkenende's CDA is on 21 in the poll, down from 41 at present.

Commentators are quick to point out that the margin of error in the poll can mount up to two seats.

Nevertheless, the poll indicates it will take four parties to form a new coalition government, and makes it doubtful the Netherlands will have a right-wing government. An alliance of the Liberals, CDA and PVV would have 74 seats in parliament.

Purple plus, an alliance of the VVD, Labour, D66 and GroenLinks would have 83 seats.
It is a tremendous relief that a purely left-wing coalition is, given this result, an impossible proposition.

In theory the Purple+ option is a possibility, but unless the VVD-leader Mark Rutte is a complete and utter bald-faced liar (given his profession not completely to be ruled out) the wide chasm in thinking on how best to repair the Dutch economy and the nations budget would rule out any coalition between VVD and PvdA.

And as predicted earlier: From here on Geert Wilders is a political force to be reckoned with. That is some good news to those of us who do not want to get rid of the Netherlands and the Dutch just yet.

[UPDATE001] Other election news: Balkenende resigns as CDA vote halves. As a person our erstwhile PM is an eminently likeable person, but you'd have to be blind to not see this coming two miles away.

[UPDATE002] With 25% of the votes counted the liberal conservatives are largest (32 seats), followed by Labour (31) and the PVV (23). The complete listing: VVD 32, PvdA 31, PVV 23, CDA 21, SP 15, D66 10, GroenLinks 10, ChristenUnie 5, SGP 2, Partij voor de Dieren 1, Trots op Nederland 0. The right combination (VVD, PVV and CDA) now has 76 out of 150 seats. It's narrow, but it is a majority!

4 reacties:

Anon zei

Very good news indeed. If this can happen in the heart of the EU, there is hope. Mr. Wilders is a great man.

Lars zei

This is a clear right wing victory!
On the left we see the communist (SP) as the big losers, Greens (GL) +3, Socialist (PvdA) -3 and the most rightwing leftist, the liberal (D66) gained +7. Thus also in the left block, the voters moved right.
But the real big move is not on the left, but in the political center. Today the Dutch political center just evaporated. Half of the centrist Christan Democratic voters -20 took a run to the right.
The liberal (VVD) gained +9 and the conservative (PVV) gained a whooping +15. This makes Geert Wilders the winner of the 2010 election.

But does that bring the PVV into the government offices? That’s hard to say, the only possible rightwing coalition consists of the liberal VVD (31), conservative PVV (24) and Christian CDA (21). The combination will only have the bare minimum of the 76 of the 150 parliamentary seats needed. Also Muslim organizations already have come with their veiled threats about the victory of Islam critical PVV: “we accept the democratic election results, but..”.
Thus there is reason enough to fear a broad left-center-right coalition of liberal VVD (31), socialist PvdA (30) and Christian CDA (21). This coalition has a comfortable 82 seats majority. A binding factor could be, Islam, they all oppose the PVV proposals. But for the rest this coalition is much more divided. Unlike the PVV, the socialist want to spend more, instead of less as proposed by CDA and especially the VVD that wants enormous budget cuts. Thus, I guess, it all comes down to what they think is more important agreement on Islam or agreement on economic policies?

To be continued….

Klein Verzet zei

Given the results the most likely cabinet is anybodies guess. What *is* clear, as you point out, is the fact that Dutch voters have shown a shift to the right that most of the political establishment failed to detect.

I sincerely hope the right-wing cabinet will materialize. But there are tremendous left-wing forces in society (unions, to name just one) which could make life extremely difficult for such a cabinet.

Given the political reality in Holland I wouldn't be surprised if in the end we get a 'national' cabinet of the big three (VVD, PvdA and CDA), maybe reinforced with D66. Moreover, given the noises made by the socialist unions (FNV) and the union of employers (by way of Wientjes), I suspect wheels are set in motion to sideline the PVV as a credible partner and give us exactly that 'national' government. They did it (thankfully) to the SP four years ago. SO why not do it to the PVV this time around?

I wouldn't like it. Then again, there is no compromise so foul as to be unpalatable to a Dutch politicians, recent history seems to tell us. Four years ago nobody wanted a coalition of CDA, PvdA and CU, but we got it anyway, remember?

DP111 zei

I think that the PVV should not be involved in any coalition government at the moment.

There are serious economic problem ahead for the Euro, the EU, as well 'social' problems. If the PVV is part of the government, they will own these problems.

Far better to wait while the rest, particularly the Left, to hang themselves. It is the likely that in the turmoil of an EU or 'social' crisis, the PVV will be called in to rescue the country.


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