Deserving a headline

This is something you, for obvious reasons, will not have heard on the news.

Much like elsewhere in Europe, the Netherlands is experiencing a cold that is quite unseasonable, and frankly not in keeping with the promises made by the AGW prophets of doom. Just how cold it has been, we can learn from a KNMI (Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute) graph reproduced above.

This graph displays ten-day average temperatures at the longest serving weather station, the KNMI station at De Bilt. In green we see the mean ten-day temperature (averaged over the years 1971 to 2000). In red, the highest temperatures since 1901 (when recording at De Bilt began) and in blue the lowest temperatures since 1901.

The black line displays the ten-day means for this year we call 2010. And what do you know? The most recent ten-day average is the lowest ever recorded in De Bilt. The lowest since recording began in 1901. The lowest in over a 100 years! (See updates below, though).

One has a tendency to wonder where all the screaming headlines are that usually accompany a record breaking weather event. But that only lasts for as long as it takes to realize that such is only the case if the record in question is one of heat, not cold. This new record doesn't deserve headlines, because it doesn't fit the narrative. It is as obvious as it is outrageous.

Daily temperatures for recent days (graph is here) are also dipping into record breaking lows. More generally, the graph shows that daily temperature readings for 2010 quite nicely track the green mean temperature line. So, how 2010 is about to become a year that is hotter even then 1998 is not obvious at all. But then, one station: That's just weather, isn't it?

[UPDATE001] Reader Eric points out that the most recent 2010 ten-day mean in the graph is actually a running mean. Well spotted! I had misread the chart, thinking the line segment started just before the end of November. It doesn't change much of the gist of this post. But the the fact that this is a running mean needs stating. Of course I will give a final result when we hit December 10.

[UPDATE002] You knew that this was coming: The cold spell this November is caused by... GLOBAL WARMING! See here.

Warm weather: global warming. Cold weather, ditto. In-between weather: same. Is there anything that is not consistent with AGW?

2 reacties:

Eric zei

Admirable as your weather chart may be, unfortunately the last reading, for 1-10 December (observe that each distinct reading is for a third of a month), is necessarily incomplete as it is only 5 December as I write! By all means provide an update on 11 December and then we can all pay attention!

Klein Verzet zei

Hi Eric,

Yes, upon second look, I think you may be right. When I first saw the chart I thought I saw the most recent 10-day mean starting just before the end of November. But that may heave been a case of 'seeing what one expects', as I thought they'd only show finished means, not running ones.

Upon closer inspection the line segment for the latest ten-day mean does indeed start at December 1st. That's a bit of a rookie mistake to make! Thanks for pointing it out though.


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