Heads, I win. Tails, you lose


Funny how that works, isn't it? First they tell us Global Warming will lead to warmer winters and less snow. In fact, as Dr. North reminds us: In 2000 Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia (of climategate fame) was sure that within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".
Children just aren't going to know what snow is
This memorable item is doing the rounds in the blogosphere these days, incidentally, causing it to be one of the most viewed items in the Independent. There's something you don't see every day: A decade-old article leading that particular list.

These days Europe is dealing with a winter that is the fourth consecutive winter that is harsher then the year before. Global warming is coming down in inches and even feet. Road salt supplies are drying up even before the holidays. All this is in screaming contrast with the prediction made by Viner in 2000. You'd think that this state of affairs puts a serious dent in the credibility of the AGW theory.

But you'd be wrong.
[S]cientists say that the current cold snap does not mean that climate change is going into reverse. In fact, the surprise with which we have greeted the extreme conditions only reinforces how our climate has changed over the years.
One would venture that 'the surprise with which we have greeted the extreme conditions' could be the result of having been told, for years on end, that harsh winters were a thing of the past. You know: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is".

What Dr Myles Allen seems to be arguing here is this: Authorities believed the tripe he and his fellow charlatans were selling. So they lowered winter readiness standards. And now that a real winter is upon us, chaos ensues. And this is somehow proof that AGW is true. Really? Pull the other one, mate!

We're back with James Delingpole: Warm weather, cold weather, in-between weather, dark skies at night, light skies in the morning, it is all global warming.

Last winter we ran out of road-salt. This winter we're running out again, before the holidays even. Back in 2000 that merry band of charlatans were predicting LESS snow, not more, LESS cold, not more. They based their predictions on their own detailed hypotheses implied by the AGW theory. The predictions were wrong, and repeatedly so. Hence, the AGW theory is wrong. It is that simple.

Unless, of course, AGW is not science. When AGW is an article of faith, as many have already concluded it must be, you can twist it so that you are always right, even when you are wrong. Heads: I win. Tails: you lose.

[UPDATE001] The Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI) adds its voice to the choir. It is 'absolute nonsense' (NL) to think global warming is over. In the UK pressure is mounting to start investigating the Met Office (see also Autonomous Mind). Methinks we should take a closer look at the KNMI as well.

1 reacties:

Lawrence zei

Good post, KV. I'm reminded of the climate-change email-expose a while back, and the one portion of it which (finally) allowed us down-to-earth, non-scientist common-folks a peek behind the wizards' screen; something along the line of "The data over the past decade does not show a warming trend, and it's a travesty that we can't prove it!!"

They know the truth, but they can't allow it to be said. Ironically enough, their truth has become very inconvenient. :)

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