On Egypt

Reports on the unrest in Egypt in our MSM hark back to the heady days in the early nineties, when communist regimes fell like dominoes, making way for truly democratic governments and economic freedom and resulting prosperity. However, the mood on the streets in Cairo and Alexandria is of a decidedly different shade, as this bit on Jihad Watch shows.

As events in Egypt continue to unfold I had planned a thoughtful post on my worries and expectations. Especially in light of the misplaced glee with which our MSM is reporting on the uprising of Egyptians against president Mubarak. But as it turns out, I need not bother, since a few others have put to bits and bytes what are my thoughts on it all. For instance, His Grace offers some sobering thoughts.
The revolution in Iran and the overthrow of the Shah yielded a Shi’a theocracy intent on the destruction of Israel. Democracy in Gaza yielded government by Hamas, intent on the destruction of Israel. The government of national unity in Lebanon has recently fallen to Hezbollah, intent on the destruction of Israel.

Egypt has had a peace treaty with Israel since 1979, for which Anwar Sadat paid the ultimate price. President Mubarak has sustained and honoured that treaty, against growing antipathy towards Israel and the West, in particular by the Muslim Brotherhood. Let us not fool ourselves that the Egyptian people are not looking for a saviour, a king, a strongman to lead them to their promised land.

Politics abhors a vacuum. Just like the Palestinians fell for the lies of Hamas, it is not impossible that some day soon Egypt will be ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood. Democratically elected. And who could then discount an Iran-Lebanon-Egypt alliance against Israel?
On the other hand we have The Gray Monk, who is more optimistic about the ultimate outcome.
I suspect it will happen in two parts, first, the current crop of autocrats will be swept aside and replaced by a new crop of Theocratic Dictators like Iran's. Eventually the religious restrictions on freedom of expression, choice and belief will come under attack as it has in the West - and then Islam will find itself being rolled aside and perhaps even rejected by its natural followers.
Even so, the Gray Monk warns that we are in for a very explosive, dangerous and bitter transition.

[UPDATE001] Caroline Glick paints a stark picture of what the upheaval in the Middle East will mean for the only true democracy in the region:
It is the "Arab Street's" overwhelming animosity towards Israel that causes the pragmatists to argue that Israel's best play is to cut deals with Arab dictators who rule with an iron fist. Since Israel and the Arab despots share a fear of the Arab masses, the pragmatists claim that Israel should give up all the land it took control over as a payoff to the regimes, who in exchange will sign peace treaties with it.

This was the logic that brought Israel to surrender the strategically priceless Sinai Peninsula to Egypt in exchange for the Camp David accord that will not survive Mubarak. (...)

THE TRUTHS exposed by the convulsive events of the past month make it abundantly clear that Israel lives in a horrible neighborhood. It is a neighborhood where popular democracy means war against Israel.

In this neck of the woods, it is not pragmatic to surrender. It is crazy.
[UPDATE002] And there it is: Mubarak to step down in September, after new elections. Time to put on the safety belts, this is going to be bumpy.

5 reacties:

Guy Gadbois zei

http://egyptology.blogspot.com/2011/01/updates-as-they-trickle-in.html

Ducky zei

This is right, Egypt will soon be like Gaza. The question is how long until they start firing missiles at Israel. Considering that Israel swapped the Sinai Peninsula for recognition, Israel should be ready to retake it on the day that Egypt withdraws recognition. Screw the bastards!

DP111 zei

The entire Muslim world, including Muslims in the West, have been under immense pressure since 9/11. 9/11 itself was very comforting but since then we have invaded Iraq and Afghanistan, and imposed our outlook on them. For Islam, victory in war is the only measure of success, as that was the example of Mohammed, and the blessing of allah. What Muslims see now is the absolute nonchalant ease with which we rout the forces of Islam. The defeated Muslims kowtow to us begging for our favour, money and food. To Muslims this so galling that it causes dissonance in the mind. Their leaders, Bashir in Sudan , Mubarek etc , know though that there is no choice - dhimmi or bite the dust. That is why Bashir the genocidal Islamist agreed to let Christians in Sudan have a referendum for independence-this against all Islamic teaching. Such was his fear what Pres Bush would do if he did not get what he "requested".

This is the main reason why our interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan are so galling to Muslims here and in Islamic nations.

It is also the main reason that these interventions are causing political earthquakes in the ME. Pakistan is also being de-stabilised as a consequence.

The question is, are these aftershocks the result of calculated policy of our interventions? I believe there are more to come. The independence of south Sudan is going to set off more explosions, and will be the primary cause of a major terrorist attack on the West, just as 9/11 was a consequence of East Timor being wrenched away from dar ul islam bu Western armed might.

Klein Verzet zei

I don't know that it is the result of calculated policy. But it is a measure of reaping what you sow. The west wants democracy in the ME. That means power to Hamas, Hezbollah and the Muslim Brotherhood. And that means war. I'm afraid the coming years will show that life on occasion is that simple.

DP111 zei

Whatever it is- whether Bush and Blair, and their advisors calculated it to be, the result is that our interventions have created ferment in the Islamic world, as well as led to the unmasking of the Islamic agenda in the West. It has led to the formation of EDL type groups all over. I predicted this would happen over 5 years ago, in a private exchange to a friend.

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