This is a crisis - linkage

I am not being facetious or sarcastic here. The European debt crisis is a crisis of monumental, historic proportion. But not in the way it is generally perceived. Whatever happens tomorrow, whatever deal is struck (if there is a deal), we can be bet on of going one of two ways: Either the EUnion will come up with something (economically) sufficient, or it will not.

If the latter the crisis of solvency will in Europe will descend into series of 'unstructured' defaults. Possibly including a break up of the euro-zone as member states like Germany, Holland and Finland take leave of the single currency. If the former, the can will have been kicked down the road, without solving the core problem that ails Europe at the moment. But we will have lost any chance of reconquering sovereignty, and indeed any meaningful form of democracy. As we wrote earlier, the choice is now between being poorer, but free, or being a serf that is very much poorer.

On this side of the aisle there is a measure of optimism, in the sense that whatever is decided, political difference between Germany and France (most notably) will ensure an outcome that is a lame duck, will not convince the markets, will be the equivalent of pouring blood into the coastal waters of South Africa, where the jumping-jack Great Whites roam. Additionally, there is the ever more persistent rumour that Germany is secretly printing Deutsch Marks in preparation of a pull out of the euro.

I'd like to, but I don't share that optimism. The debate in the Bundestag today, and especially the contribution of Frau 'the goal is a stability union' Merkel doesn't even begin to hint at Germans planning mischief, alas. Rather, it is witness to an ideologically blinkered faith, an article of faith, that the euro is sine qua non for a functioning continent. That without the euro, Europe will descend into a chaotic mess of war, poverty and deprivation it never knew in its history.

Having followed the EUnions ascension to a fully fledged one-party state over the last five years, what I fear most is this: The gravity of the situation is hyped up to such an extent that national politicians (longs since having take leave of being national leaders) will think they can get away with accepting any solution to this crisis. Up to and including a new palace coup that will cement the EUnion and plunge us into a fiscal and political union (I mean, what else do we understand to be a 'stability union'?). If anything, the EUnion is brilliant at conjuring up a 'solution', like a rabbit from a magicians top hat, that will somehow or other further increase the power of the unelected and unelectable cabal making up the EUnions leadership. It may well be that we will wake up tomorrow, to find we have been given over, by our national political elites, to the whims of Barosso, Van Rompuy and whoever the super-commissioner for budgetary affairs (as proposed by our very own PM, Mark Rutte, the Dutch definition of a europlastic) is going to be.

Maybe I am overly pessimistic. Dr. North seems to think so, tracking the 'decline and fall' of the European project. In all likelihood Dr. North is more right then I am. But even then, I fear the damage that our so-called leaders will do to us, our savings and our livelihoods before they concede defeat. This is not a happy story. This really is a crisis.

Below I've put some links that shed a little light on the feasibility (or not) of 'leveraging' the EFSF, as is being talked about in Brussels as I write this. It is now a little past midnight. What will the morrow bring?

IMF GREEK PULLOUT : We’re la-la-la-looking the other way….

There Is No Bailout Spoon

The sirens are calling EU leaders towards the rocks

Four Facts that PROVE the EFSF Doesn’t Matter… At All

The Saved and the Damned

Trichet Repeats Call For European Finance Ministry, Abdication Of National Sovereignty

... and is boo-ed off stage

[UPDATE001] Ambrose Evans-Pritchard gives us the verdict:
So, EMU break-up is Verboten, fiscal union is Verboten, full mobilization of the ECB – either to lift the South off the reefs through reflation, or to back-stop the system as a lender-of-last resort – is Verboten. Germany will have none of it.

Instead we have the summit conclusions – EUCO 116/11 of October 27 2011 – and a great deal of coercion. Please tell me what exactly has been solved.
The Slog and his Bankfurt Mole are even more succinct: The deal heralded throughout the European press today can now be revealed as a content-free sham cobbled together at the last moment

Makes you wonder what the heads of state said for goodbyes. "See you in a week or two"?

2 opmerkingen:

Edward zei

The proportion of "rebel" votes in the Bundestag on the EFSF and in the British parliament about a referendum on EU membership were remarkably similar. The following letter to my local paper echoes your sentiments.

"Monday's vote showed a democratic minority of MPs standing up for Britain's right to rule itself against the majority of obedient lobby robots.

It was not just a Conservative democratic rebellion. The Labour MPs Natascha Engel and Dennis Skinner joined the local Conservatives Nigel Mills and Heather Wheeler in the vote for a referendum on a return to self government .

The other MPs of all parties voted in a solidly Soviet-style block, just as their leaders told them to. We have nominally different parties to vote for but the leaderships are all agreed on one policy of subservience to the EU.

The Palace of Westminster is rather like a pub selling three different brands of beer with different labels on the pumps and different advertising but only one barrel to draw from - Brussels' Best and it is increasingly bitter.

The situation is not unlike that in former communist East Germany. It was called the German Democratic Republic and you could vote for different parties - Christian Democrats, Liberal Democrats, the Democratic Farmers' Party and so on. But they were all signed up to the programme of the so-called Socialist Unity Party which took its orders from Moscow - just as our leaders do from Brussels.

This was the system under which Angela Merkel had a privileged upbringing. She became a propaganda officer in the Freie Deutsche Jugend (Free German Youth), the communist equivalent of the Hitler Youth. They had a song with rather a jolly tune "Die Partei hat immer recht" (the party is always right). The majority of our MPs should start learning it. They could sing it as they march into the lobby."

One of Noel Coward's songs is appropriate for our times "Bad times are just around the corner".

Klein Verzet zei

The DDR, that is actually a terrific comparison. Why hadn't I thought of that one before? It describes the situation (in the Netherlands at least) to a tee. I'm going to nick it.