Hope she's right

For some much needed optimism, I refer you to Mary-Ellen Synon, who writes:

The euro is coming unzipped, and all the eurozone leaders ought to be doing now is preparing for an orderly break-up. But they won't. They will just go on saying 'we will do whatever it takes to save the euro' and coming up with more incoherent and ineffectual plans.

The eurozone leaders are indeed like test pilots caught in a fighter-plane death spiral, unwilling to admit that they have tried everything, and there is nothing left to try.

Read it in full. How I do hope Ms. Synon is right.

Setting up a Mafia bank

In order so that we don't have to, Ian Parker-Joseph has taken a close look at the Treaty establishing the EUnion Stability Mechanism (ESM), which goes into force in 2013.

As EUnion institutions go this one is a marvel of elitist, anti-democratic arrogance.

Set up a company, get all those friends who are in financial trouble to buy shares in your new venture by robbing their taxpayers of huge amounts to raise the paid up capital (details at the bottom), then get all the friendly governments to give this new company legal status, privileges normally reserved for diplomats along with full immunity for all and anything they do whilst working for the company, plan to employ a whole raft of new staff, appoint a Board of Directors and a Managing Director, invoke professional secrecy rules on them all, and get governments to grant immunity to the persons and exempt them from income tax (the company will tax its employees and keep it).

On top of that, ensure that your new company is exempt from all and any kind of registration, regulation, supervision, oversight or taxation and can operate OUTSIDE of all legal structures, AND gets to audit itself whilst leaving the EU Commission as the sole negotiator on loans made by your ‘company’.

Especially the immunity granted to the 'bank' and all those that work in it is very worrying indeed.

Total Immunity except in the case of a contract. But… you can’t search buildings or assets, can’t take any legal actions and all archives and documents are inviolable, its buildings and communications are given diplomatic immunity so you can’t touch them for anything. The property and funding is outside of the reach of anyone and they don’t need to be licensed or regulated in any way. It really is a legalised Mafia.

There is only one possible outcome, if this monster is actually given life: Poverty for all.

It may save a few faces, it may save a few banks, but the peoples of Europe will never forgive or forget this new form of economic slavery, a heinous crime, and the levels of totally un-repayable debt that is now being thrust upon them… by the unelected mafia that is the EU Commission.

Go on over and read the whole hair-at-the-beck-of-your-neck-rasing tale. No really, go and read it! We are moving into very dark territory here. And people (that means you too) need to start paying attention to this miserable garbage posing as just governance. This is your life, freedom and well-being we are discussing here, yours and mine.

(h/t WfW)

[Instant Update] And for those wondering: Yes, but how much is it going to cost? Ian PJ provides a nice overview who is expected to pay what:

Subscriptions to the authorised capital stock
ESM Member                             Number of shares         Capital subscription
(EUR)
Kingdom of Belgium                              243 397                    24 339 700 000
Federal Republic of Germany             1 900 248                  190 024 800 000
Republic of Estonia                                13 020                      1 302 000 000
Ireland                                                  111 454                    11 145 400 000
Hellenic Republic                                  197 169                    19 716 900 000
Kingdom of Spain                                 833 259                    83 325 900 000
French Republic                                 1 427 013                 142 701 300 000
Italian Republic                                  1 253 959                 125 395 900 000
Republic of Cyprus                                 13 734                     1 373 400 000
Grand Duchy of Luxembourg                  17 528                     1 752 800 000
Malta                                                       5 117                        511 700 000
Kingdom of the Netherlands               400 190                   40 019 000 000
Republic of Austria                               194 838                  19 483 800 000
Portuguese Republic                             175 644                  17 564 400 000
Republic of Slovenia                               29 932                    2 993 200 000
Slovak Republic                                      57 680                    5 768 000 000
Republic of Finland                               125 818                  12 581 800 000
Total                                                 7 000 000             700 000 000 000

FOURTY BILLION! Makes those 18 billion in budget cuts seem a bit helpless, doesn't it? Another 40 billion, BOOM headshot, added to our national deficit. It's good to know your tax money is so well spent, isn't it?

Some cold, hard truth

Imam Rauf, infamous for his planned desecration of Ground Zero, paraded around the Western MSM as a "moderate". And this moderate man makes the rather incredible claim that sharia law is 90% fully compatible with American, and hence Western, constitutional law. Mr. Charles Adler and Mr. Michael Coren of Canada's Sun News TV state a few cold, hard truths to expose this dangerous nonsense.

(thanks to DP111)

Bad, bad news

Daniel Hannan on what is the nightmare of many: Eurobonds are on the way, whatever Mrs Merkel says.

There will be no unified euro bond market, says Angela Merkel. This is, of course, the same Angela Merkel who denied that the first Greek bailout would happen, that the second Greek bailout would happen and that the Portuguese bailout would happen; the same Angela Merkel, indeed, who assured us that “we have a treaty under which there is no possibility to bail out states in difficulty”. (...)

Eurobonds are not inevitable; but I still think they are the EU’s likeliest next move. For many Brussels decision-makers, they are not an emergency response to the crisis, but a long-held goal. (...) A campaign is plainly underway across the palaces and chancelleries of Europe.

That sound you here is the wetting stone sharpening pitchforks, while torches are being dipped in pitch.

Quote of the day

I am not interested in excuses or even explanations. Words are not enough ... this is wholesale looting, theft on an industrial scale. It must stop.

Now, I acknowledge that we cannot make it stop in the short term. But hear ye, powerless we might be as individuals, but you – and you know who "you" are – would be extremely unwise to presume on that always being the case. Our memories are long, and our patience is short ... and you can push us only so far.

Richard North on white-collar looting.

And lest you think this doesn't concern our small, damp concern of the world, I give you:


Den Doldrieschten Blogger (NL)

and,

Geenstijl (NL)

This is a friendly, but concerned warning...

A heavy dead hand

In the Daily Mail this Sunday we find a accurate and worrying description of how the 'ever closer union' of the EU take its shape (which, as far as I know, is a first in the MSM anywhere). A special place is reserved for the 'beneficial crisis' so beloved by the EUnion.

One powerful Eurocrat, who is today at the epicentre of EU affairs, once described to me the three great crises the EU has experienced since 1991 in exactly these terms(...).

The root of our present collective peril lies in the fact that the euro single currency was consciously created to produce just such ‘beneficial crises’(...).

The result of ‘beneficial crises’ over the past 60 years has always been ‘more Europe’. He also used another image for me, and a telling one: ‘To get a horse to jump a hedge, you have to frighten it.’

(h/t Calling England)

That includes breaking the rules the EUnion has set for itself, as Mark Wadsworth explains:

The ongoing assault on the basic rules of liberal democracy has been the defining feature of the euro crisis. The treaty to establish the new European Stability Mechanism is the best example of this fundamentally undemocratic approach … it may be European but legally it stands outside the EU.

(h/t WfW)

And just how suffocating the dead but heavy hand of the EUnion is weighing on victims like Greece is spelled out by GermanForeignPolicy.com.

Because of Germany's austerity dictate, EU and IMF supervisors are, in fact, now ruling Athens. Recently a leading German daily columnist wrote, "for months now, elected Greek representatives have been prevented from making their own decisions on any questions of significance." A parliamentarian publically posed the question, "what was he supposed to do now in Parliament, when, in any case, every decision is going to be taken by the IMF, the EU and the European Central Bank. As a matter of fact," concluded the commentator, "for the time being, Greece will be merely a restricted democracy. The Greeks can vote for whatever they want, but it will not really change anything."

And that other highly visible victim, Ireland? Well.... (h/t ATW)

Tonight on Dutch TV, Guy Verhofstadt, one of the über-Eurocrats stated: "National identity is a criminal concept that ultimately leads to gas chambers". What is an effective defence against such historically ignorant stupidity?

These people are out to destroy the diversity and vibrancy of our European continent. They want to replace it with one grey, mediocre government to rule us all. And they're willing to plunge us all into destitute tyranny and servitude to get their way. The EUnion must be destroyed.

Losing Malmo

And Brussels, and Rome, and Amsterdam . . . by Andrew C. McCarthy

Do you remember the jihadist terror campaign that ravaged Malmo, Sweden’s third largest city? Do you recall the bombings, the suicide-hijackings, and the random assassinations that finally coerced the city to surrender to Islamization?

No? Funny, I don’t remember them either. Yet there is no question that Malmo has surrendered. Large enclaves of the city, like similar enclaves throughout Western Europe, have earned the dread label “no-go zone.” They are unsafe for non-Muslims, particularly women who do not conform to Islamist conventions of dress and social interaction. They are especially perilous for police, firefighters, and emergency-medical technicians.

Why would a community discourage the so-called first-responders? After all, the top priority of law-enforcement officers is to assist crime victims. In an Islamic enclave, a high percentage of these will be Muslims. And obviously, the fire department and the ambulances are dispatched to save lives — here, Muslim lives. Yet, the community is hostile. The police and other emergency personnel are viewed as agents of the non-Muslim state. Their presumptuousness in entering the Islamic enclave and acting under the color of Swedish law is taken as an affront to Islamic sovereignty.

Continue reading... which you should.

(h/t Mark Tapson)

Europe needs a revolution

Pat Condell arguing that the current political order in Europe needs to be overthrown.

One minor quibble I have with Mr. Condells item: Votes do no equal democracy. Richard North sees the same flaw in the argument, saying that we need to understand that electing officials does not a democracy make. Democracy, is not about choosing officials, but of controlling them once they are in office.

And it is that control we lack. Currently our leaders do not fear the people, do not even respect the people. Our governors should (re-)learn to fear us. We need to re-establish control over our leaders.

Your read for today

There are actually two, which should be read in conjunction by every citizen in the EUnion

The NYT published a article that should be read by every citizen in the EUnion: E.U. Elites Keep Power From the People.

During these past months, both [José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, the Union’s executive, and Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council] have failed to explain to a wider public what is happening to Europe and the euro. When they give interviews, they tend to address an elitist audience. Neither reaches out to citizens. “I doubt if they ever thought of doing town-hall meetings,” said Pawel Swieboda, director of DemosEuropa, an independent research organization in Warsaw.

“They don’t bother to do such meetings because they don’t have to stand for election,” added Reinhard Bütikofer, a German and leader of the Greens in the European Parliament.

Mr. Barroso and Mr. Van Rompuy were chosen behind closed doors. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, who on European issues often skirt the broader public, had a powerful influence over who should run Brussels. They preferred weak leaders who would be beholden to them, analysts say.

The American Thinker has some pertinent observations to add.

What the EU fails to admit is that its Ruling Class routinely tells endless lies to the voters, with no fear of consequences. The Ruling Class controls most of the media, including the UK Guardian and the BBC -- the Pravda and Istvestiya of modern Britain.

The resulting massive corruption, ideological rigidity, left-wing insanity, taxpayer exploitation, and sheer misgovernment is unbelievable; surrendering to Islamic radicalism is just a small part of it.

It seems that across the Big Pond they have a firmer understanding of the character of your 'government' then we at times do ourselves.

(h/t EURef)

Is it actually there?

Economic times are uncertain. Stock markets around the world are on a downward trajectory. Ordinary citizens watch the evening news and hear stories of bankers operating without any sense of integrity or responsibility, other then their own pay-check and perks. They see their leaders throwing away massive, inconceivable amounts of money we can't afford to begin with, mortgaging an economic future that is perceived to be considerably less sunny then the talking heads on our screens want us to believe.

Central banks all across the western world are running rough-shod over their own national currencies with misguided neo-Keynesian wet farts. Measures whose effect is always less then predicted and a lot less lasting to boot (Greek bail-out I and II, anyone?). World-wide the calls for re-introduction of the gold standard are increasing.

In such times is it any wonder that the traditional, time-tried means of wealth-storage are finding new popularity? The modest KV household portfolio is made up of silver, gold and oil related shares. And doing quite nicely, thank you. Even in the midst of the economic storm currently blowing. As such it is re-assuring to read that the Dutch government has 615 tonnes of gold (2010) in reserve, some 60% of the total foreign exchange reserves.

Or is it? The Dutch National Bank (DNB) is rather secretive about its gold reserves. It won't tell us, for instance, how much of the 612 tonnes is held physically and how much of it is held in claims. That distinction is rather important. It is the difference between having money in your pocket, or having a piece of paper with IOU scribbled on it. Physically held gold has value, outstanding claims may turn out not to be worth the paper they are written on.

This is not just a Dutch issue. Elsewhere, in the US the same worry has been expressed rather forcefully by congressman Ron Paul.

"The Treasury Department has been less than transparent with the results of its gold audits. It is asking the American people to trust that all the gold is there, while not allowing site visits and not publishing all the data it holds on its audits and assays," Paul said in a press statement. "Since most of this gold was originally seized from the American people in the 1930s, they deserve more transparency than a handful of financial statements."

This would equally apply to us, Netherlanders. The gold reserve DNB is claiming to hold, is it actually there?

In a bid to find out, De Vrijspreker has started a petition asking for an investigation into the Dutch gold reserves. As soon has the 1,000 mark is hit, a formal request for such an investigation will be filed. The petition is here. Head on over and sign it. It is certainly worth to at least try to find out, isn't it?

The math that killed the economy

The above formula may be responsible for the onset of the financial crisis and our long slide into double-dip recession (or is it a Depression after all?). It is a Gaussian Copula. In finance it was used to model the risk in a set of debt papers (like mortgages) in credit default swaps. It was highly successful too. Until it was pushed past breaking point.

For five years, Li's formula, known as a Gaussian copula function, looked like an unambiguously positive breakthrough, a piece of financial technology that allowed hugely complex risks to be modeled with more ease and accuracy than ever before. With his brilliant spark of mathematical legerdemain, Li made it possible for traders to sell vast quantities of new securities, expanding financial markets to unimaginable levels.

His method was adopted by everybody from bond investors and Wall Street banks to ratings agencies and regulators. And it became so deeply entrenched—and was making people so much money—that warnings about its limitations were largely ignored.

Then the model fell apart. Cracks started appearing early on, when financial markets began behaving in ways that users of Li's formula hadn't expected. The cracks became full-fledged canyons in 2008—when ruptures in the financial system's foundation swallowed up trillions of dollars and put the survival of the global banking system in serious peril.

Forbes magazine calls it the formula from hell. Wired magazine has the longer, more in-depth coverage here.

(via)

Without further comment

Peace on Earth and goodwill to all mankind. But facsimiles of human life that perpetrate this do not need our help, do not deserve our help.

Two weeks later Jensz received another call. Local dog fighters had cut off [Afghan mutt]Wylie’s ears and had scalped him in the process, before using the same homemade knife to cut his muzzle wide open from his nose to under his eye. He was patched up again by Jensz and a team of Australian Defence Force doctors only to return from his perilous forays outside the base with new injuries — a stab wound to the chest and a savagely docked tail.

Then, horrifically, one day he limped back to the camp after Kandahar locals — many of whom despise dogs only marginally less than they do coalition soldiers — had tried to sever his penis.

Without further comment.

(h/t DP111)

Something new

Having just put down the NYT, I've started my own newspaper: Underdog News. Mainly this is a way of relaying all the good stuff that comes my way via blogs and twitter. These days that is of such a volume that I can't keep up, blogging-wise.

The aim is to come up with a site that relays stories that give an alternative slant to the narrative provided by our intrepid MSM. Items that don't make it to the mainstream, hence 'Underdog News'. Not all of it is underdog, though. But the mix of 'hard' MSM news and explanation and interpretation provided by others will hopefully make for a interesting and informative mix. This is a bit of an experiment. I hope it will work out as I intend it to.

It is a bit of a mixed-up thing, with items in EN and NL, with the occasional D or F item thrown in. In the coming days and weeks I'll probably play around with the settings to get it optimized.

I've provided a link in the right-hand side column. A new issue is published daily at 0600 2100 GMT.

NYT: Failing at failing

Last week we covered the rather conspicuous lie, promulgated by the former newspaper of record New York Time. Evidently we were not the only ones noticing the NYT' creative reporting, because this week they've published a retraction. Of sorts.

An article last Sunday about the rise of hostility to Muslim immigrants in the Netherlands misstated the deportation policy advocated by Geert Wilders, an avowed anti-Muslim Dutch politician who leads the country’s third-largest party. Mr. Wilders has said that immigrant Muslims and their children should be deported if they break the law, or engage in behavior he has described as “problematic, ” or they are “lazy.” He has not advocated deportation for all immigrants and their children.

Once again emphasis is mine.

This time the NYT is a little more subtle about it. You see, Wilders did say immigrants who come here only to draw benefits are not desirable guests. The NYT does a creative twist here: People drawing benefits are too lazy to work (that is how the NYT sees it, apparently). Hence Wilders wants lazy immigrants (and their children!) deported. And that bit about 'problematic behavior', that is so vague as to be meaningless. But it does work to cast a nice dark (brown?) pall over the figure of Geert Wilders.

As retractions go, this is the most spiteful, self-righteous manner to pretend to be admitting to a gross error, a massive fail of journalistic integrity. Rather then bravely and honestly owning up to an error (one which would, in earlier times, have led to the summary dismissal of the hack involved), the NYT chose to absolve itself in this unbelievably poor manner.

The NYT was presented with an opportunity to show its former quality and integrity. Dismayingly, they decided to use it to confirm, for all to see, the spiteful, dishonest and ungracious character of the 'new journalism' at the NYT. This is what failing at failing looks like.

(h/t NP)

Exactly!

The difference between the “Left” and the “Right” in modern European parliamentary democracies is laughable. Should the VAT be raised to 20% or 21%? Should we import 100,000 or 120,000 Muslim immigrants per annum? Should we cut the military budget to 1% of GDP, or would 0.5% be more appropriate to our peace-loving democracies?

Any political opinion that is truly different, that would address fundamental questions about state policy — or indeed question the size and nature of the State itself — is considered beyond the pale. Despite pervasive multicultural indoctrination, there are still people who believe that the European Union is an oppressive hegemon, that sovereign independent nations are the best political structures, and that the mass importation of totally alien peoples into Europe is a dangerous mistake. Those who hold such opinions are placed outside the bounds of polite society. They are labeled “right-wing extremists”, “racists”, “fascists”, and “neo-Nazis”. The thoughts they think are simply not permitted.

The Baron, in rare form, on the present-day European political climate.

Irresponsible

This week the leader of Second Chamber fraction of coalition partner CDA (christian-democrats), Sybrand Van Haersma Buma, called the position with regard to the euro-crisis, taken by Geert Wilders' PVV 'very irresponsible' (NL).

According to the CDA fraction leader the crisis is of such a magnitude that parties need to think about a common strategy to fight it. He hopes that parties against the support package for Greece, such as PVV and [the Socialist Party], have the courage to make a different choice, so as to avoid 'going into the abyss of a crisis'. (...)

On Monday Van Haersma Buma called for a more forceful economic governance of Europe, by the means of a European budget authority. 'We must break through the anti-European sentiment', he said.

One day later, the French president Nicoals Sarkozy and German chancellor Angela Merkel came with a proposal of a euro-government, with the aim of a centrally determined economic policy within the euro-zone.

The Dutch political establishment likes to predict hellfire and brimstone, much wailing and gnashing of teeth, as soon as there's talk of blocking further financial 'help', even of leaving the eurozone all together and breaking up that infernal social-democrat project we know as the EUnion. And none likes to do more so as the CDA.

This is to be expected. Of all the political parties in the Netherlands, the CDA has invested the most political capital in the EUnion. Remember it was the CDA, then led by Jan-Peter Balkendende, who shovelled the outcome of the referendum on the 'European constitution' under the rug, and manipulated the political process so as to avoid another referendum on the Lisbon treaty the Turnip.

What is missing from the remarks by van Haersma Buma is any realization that he is asking for support to the very institution that caused the crisis to begin with. The current crisis is not 'just' an economic crisis. The slump in the economy (whether a double-dip recession or a full-blown Depression) laid bare the deeper problems at the heart of the euro and the EUnion.

It was the euro that led to various bubbles, like the real-estate bubbles in Ireland and Spain. And it was the lack-lustre discipline of the EUnion, that let Greece (and Italy, and let us not forget France and Germany, who were allowed to break the 'sacrosanct' Stability-pact) run roughshod over any and all principles of financial prudence. In return the EUnion is doing its level best to force the countries that are disciplined enough to bail out the financially irresponsible.

The EUnion just does not work. It does not deliver the economic prosperity it promised. Economic growth targets have never been met within the Euro-zone. Freedom is less, not more, in EUnion member countries. Democracy is withering on the vine and soon to be pronounced officially dead or live on as an empty slogan-filler. The only thing that has grown and prospered is the Brussels monster with its 170,000 jobsworths drinking, dining and living on our money.

And now that a crisis is upon us, a crisis that lays bare the vacuousness and unreality of the basic tenets underlying the EUnion project, we are expected to throw money at the problem until it goes away. That is what van Haersma Buma and the CDA are asking.

But the problem will not go away. The problem is the EUnion. If a certain something is responsible for a crisis, how is more of that certain something going to solve it? It does not make sense. That we are called to support it by the CDA seems to be the more irresponsible position. Especially since to date no-one has made any honest cost-benefit analysis of leaving the euro-zone versus staying in it.

Yes, we know that leaving the euro-zone will carry its own price. Liberty never comes cheap. But is that price really that much steeper then the price we will pay for the mad dash Merkel, Sarkozy and the rest of that merry band of charlatans are making with our money? If you read Dutch, you will find a post on DDS entitled Money for nothing (and your slaves for free) (NL). In it the author analyses what the current plans for central economic governance in the euro-zone would mean for the Netherlands. The short answer is: Bankruptcy.

So, is the resistance against further financial aid to Greece irresponsible? Or is your attempt to bankrupt your own country, one which you swore an oath to serve, your attempt to push into poverty and servitude the people you claim to represent, is that maybe just a teensy bit more irresponsible?

[UPDATE001] It seems that the Dutch as a whole know what is, and what is not, irresponsible. The latest poll shows the PVV (29) just one seat junior to the VVD (30 seats), the largest party in Second Chamber. Snouck has the goods. The CDA, third coalition partner in the Danish construction, lags behind with a paltry 14 seats. Talk about trying on too large a pair of trousers, Sybrand.

Growing Euro-scepticism in the Netherlands

This is quite heartening (h/t Sue)

Household message

Disqus is experiencing some difficulties in their data-center. Hence, comments are functional only up to the point that they are not.

My apologies.

And for those that asked: The Baum et al. paper can be viewed here (pdf).

[UPDATE001] Problem seems to be solved. Comments are working again.

Quote of the day

But the times have changed. Powell had to prophesy his “Tiber foaming with blood”. We, on the other hand, have already experienced the fires of Tottenham and Croydon. Moreover, the public mood is different from the acquiescent and deferential electorate of the Sixties. We are undeceived. We are tired of being cheated and lied to by bankers and MPs and some sections of the press.

We will not continue, I think, to tolerate being lied to and cheated in the matter of race. Instead of “not in front of the children”, we want honesty.

But this is only the beginning.

David Starkey in the Telegraph. And to all the Hague and Brussels and other seats of power: Take heed!

Climate changes causes space alien invasion

No, really.

A pre-emptive strike [from extraterrestrials] would be particularly likely in the early phases of our expansion because a civilization may become increasingly difficult to destroy as it continues to expand.

Humanity may just now be entering the period in which its rapid civilizational expansion could be detected by an ETI because our expansion is changing the composition of Earth’s atmosphere (e.g. via greenhouse gas emissions), which therefore changes the spectral signature of Earth. While it is difficult to estimate the likelihood of this scenario, it should at a minimum give us pause as we evaluate our expansive tendencies.

Emphasis is mine.

Behold the grand spectacle of science in this, the second decade of the 21st century. The quote is from an actual scientific paper, passing actual peer review. The paper containing the quote was published in Acta Astronautica (Baum et al. ,2011, AA 68(11-12): 2114-2129). The Guardian (p) is actually taking this horse manure seriously here.

What is amazing about this, is not even that we have a bunch of people writing this drivel. No, it is the fact that two or three reviewers, plus the editor of the journal, thought it was a completely logical, scientifically responsible and (dare I say it?) sane statement to make.

Far be it from me to raise the anxiety of parent readers with college aged children. But these people are beyond redemption. They should not be allowed out without supervision. Yet it is these people that are educating your kids. It is these people you are lavishing the quite considerable tuition fees on. Them and the (equally insane, apparently) boards that employ them.

The demise of science, indeed.

EUR, what is it good for?

Holland has benefited enormously from the euro. We have an enormous trade surplus, because of our export to those eurozone countries because of the euro.

Or, that is at least the excuse trotted out by our current Finance minister Jan-Kees de Jager (yes, one of THEM) in defence of decisions to give away all of our sovereignty in order to 'save the euro'. Supposedly it is in our own interest that the euro lives.

But is it true? Dutch daily De Pers does a nice bit of myth-busting. Conclusion: Busted!

The statement is untrue. Holland has not benefited 'enormously' from the euro. The shared currency did not lead to a greater exports to eurozone countries and a subsequent 'enormous' trade surplus. Holland has a surplus because it is competitive and thrifty.

While it is true the trade balance surplus has increased under the euro, that growth of surplus started already way back in the 1980's, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).

The net effect of the euro on European trade has estimates ranging between zero en 10%, with the ECB itself estimating the effect to be in the lower end of the scale. Near zero, therefore.

Increased trade does not necessarily lead to a trade surplus. According to Central Planning Bureau economist Arjen Lejour there's an equal chance the increased trade would have cause increased imports, lowering the surplus.

That the surplus increased has two causes: Firstly, Holland is competitive because of moderate wages coupled with a high productivity. Secondly, the Dutch save more then they spend.

Besides, since 2002 Dutch exports to other eurozone countries has decreased from 61% to 58% of total exports, indicating that the Netherlands has benefited mostly from growth in world trade.

So, no measurable benefits. But the current crisis is one that was spawned by the very currency were/are promised to benefit from. What is the euro good for, anyway? Can we leave now?

Now it's personal

Okay, so today I was first confronted with this.

Key members of the government are prepared to give core responsibility for economic policy to the European Union in Brussels as the only way to stabilise the eurozone, the Algemeen Dagblad reports. (...)

Handing more sovereignty to the European Union would include the setting up of a European institute to intervene in member states before a crisis erupted.

And at the beginning of this evening I read this:

"The first of these propositions is to create a real economic government for the euro zone. This economic government will be made up of ... heads of state and government that will meet twice a year, and more if necessary. It will elect a stable president for two and half years... We propose that if he is a candidate that this stable president is Herman Van Rompuy."

In a perfect world there would now be a mass of citizens, filled with righteous anger, descending upon the Hague to tear the PM and his ministers limb for limb over this awful betrayal. To hell with moderation and civility and 'democratic means'. As the Dutch saying goes: He who does not want to listen should be made to feel.

But this is not a perfect world alas. So here I sit, all by my lonesome, seething with a powerless rage and burning eyes over yet another grand betrayal.

This has nothing to do with 'relaxing the market'. This is a coup. All those years of telling us the aim is NOT a centralized European government are now coming to fruition by instituting a centralized European government. One we did not vote for. One we (most of us) do not want.

And to think I voted for this coalition, I supported it. Hell, I rejoiced in the coming together of the 'Danish' cabinet, that promised, solemnly swore to roll back the power of the EUnion of national government.

And this is how I receive thanks for my vote. You cunts, you complete and UTTER cunts! All of you, cabinet, parliament and social partners, are beneath contempt for participating in this power grab. You've now made it personal. You took my vote and used it for this perversion. Okay then. I know where I stand now. And I will act accordingly. None of you is worth the time of day. That much you've convinced us of today.

But there will be a reckoning. If there is one thing that is consistent enough in history it could be declared a law: Ignore, belittle and betray the people long enough and often enough and there will be a 'day of the axe'. And when that day comes don't look to me or mine for help or sympathy. You will have earned all that you get on that black day. And I will not suppress the venomous smile forcing itself on my face.

Realisation finally sets in

Don't miss AEP's latest: ECB is euroland's last hope as bail-out machinery fails to resolve crisis.

The money quote, the one paragraph that tells you what we're actually facing:

Mr Trichet is moving into dangerous waters dictating budgets to sovereign parliaments. It matters enormously whether citizens have political "ownership" over austerity, or whether it is imposed by outside forces.

His former colleague Otmar Issing fears that Europe is becoming a deformed union where officials run roughshod over nations and fiscal power lies beyond democratic control. Such encroachments have "brought war" in the past, he said.

And finally we see the that the even within political circles the realisation begins to dawn that we are on a destructive and potentially very dangerous path. It has been some time in coming, but finally, at long last we are getting there.

On a side-note, earlier in the piece AEP says:

Italy does not have a debt problem as such. Its budget is in primary surplus this year. Total debt – the relevant gauge -- is under 250pc of GDP: similar to France, and lower than Holland, Spain, Britain, the US, or Japan.

You what? Every statistic I have seen puts the Dutch debt at around 75-80% of GDP. What am I missing? Is AEP wrong, or have we been lied to? Again?

No, seriously. If any of you have some light to shed I would very much like to hear it.

Dramatic fail

The New York Times does Dutch multiculturalism. And fails. Dramatically.

There are so many things wrong with this piece, from the conspicuously one-sided selection of rent-a-quotes to the utter failure to understand even the basics of the Dutch mind-set, I hardly know where to start.

But let me make just one observation: Any publication that states the following is no more a reliable source of information as is the drunken loud-mouth at the far end of the bar on a late Wednesday night at the pub.

Mr. Wilders’ Freedom Party, which combines racist language with calls for more social spending, won 15.5 percent of the vote in June 2010. He was recently acquitted of charges of hate speech for comparing the Koran to “Mein Kampf” and calling mosques “palaces of hatred.” He wants all immigrants and their children deported and warns of the supposed Muslim plot to create “Eurabia.”

Emphasis is mine. That bit is an outright lie. It is not easy to invalidate. Proving a negative never is. It is not a 'selective interpretation' of Wilders' past statements. It is not a slight hyperbole, which can be explained away by some judicious use of links and quotes. But an untruth it is. A brazen, shameless lie, without any foundation whatsoever.

With that one quote the NYT has terminally disqualified itself from commenting on Dutch affairs. How did that ever get past the fact-checking (assuming such procedures still exist at the NYT)? This is so conspicuously and demonstrably untrue, that no Dutch newspaper, not even the most left of activist, leftist newspaper (think Trouw) would dare write this. Writing such tripe would mean instant destruction of any shred of credibility it has left.

The NYT evidently has given up any pretence of being a newspaper. It has joined the ranks of cheap activist agitprop rags. Is it any wonder an industry that allows such failure is a failing industry?

[UPDATE001] Just in from the KV mailbox, some US liberal clever dick (how the hell did he/she find this place?) telling me my argument is void, because I refuse to demonstrate the NYT falsehood.

I beg to differ. The burden of proof lies with the NYT and all those that support that (dish)rag: Show me the speech, article, or interview where Mr. Wilders states his resolution to deport 'all immigrants and their children'. Until such time, which is going to be somewhere around the time sub-zero temperatures are recorded in hell, the argument as well as my assessment of the NYTs' quality stands. Period.

Up to us

An interesting and important observation by Dr. North in the wake of the UK riots: A healthy reaction.

This is the good news - that people are banding together to protect their own property and environs. (...)

The merit of such an option is that it formalises (and legitimises) community action – allowing people to take part in the protection of their property without fear of intervention by the police. In effect, it reinforces the idea that a community problem might best be dealt-with by the community. The best police response might be to invite and organise a community response – and then back it up.

The police is limited in time and resources. The first line of defence of our communities is us, banding together, providing mutual support.

We would do well to remember this: It is up to us.

[UPDATE001] This is what I mean:

On the Radicalization of Anders Behring Breivik

From the KV mail box, thanks to Kurt Lunström, the following video made by Answering Islam. It is the definitive indictment of all those fools and horses behinds that attempt to connect Breiviks slaughter to Robert Spencer, Fjordman, Wilders, Pam Geller and other critical observers of the modern West. That's 18 minutes of your day you won't necessarily want back.

Sunday linkage - Euro crisis edition

The coming hours and days will in all likelihood decide the fate of the euro and with it the fate of many European nations. Whatever happens, it is going to be a stormy couple of days. I haven't the time today to properly post something. But reading the next few links will give you some idea of what we're facing.

First up, a couple of links from ZeroHedge:
Explaining How The Just Announced ECB Market Rescue Pledged 133% Of German GDP To Cover All Of Europe's Bad Debt

[N]ot only will the EFSF have to be expanded (that much was known), but that Germany, and specifically the outright economy, will be on the hook by an unprecedented amount of money. And expanded it will have to be: not by two, not by three, but by a cool four times, to a unbelievable €3.5 trillion. (...)

That means that Germany "contin[g]ent liabilities", in the worst case scenario where France again gets downgraded, and it likely will eventually, would surge to about €3.3 trillion, or an insane 133% of German GDP!

But then: It Just Went From Bad To Far, Far Worse As Germany Says Italy Is Too Big For EFSF To Save, Refuses To Carry Euro Bailout Burden. As the BBC says: All eyes are now on Merkel.

It's is hardly the fault of the German chancellor that others are in the cross-hairs of the bond market, but she is the one person who could disarm that market firepower. (...)

It's not just about the Germans. The Dutch and the Finns know that they would be required to commit a similar proportion of financial and political capital, but only the Germans have the scale and status to take the lead.

Indeed, Germany has already stated categorically Italy can't be bailed-out. The money just isn't there.

The Telegraphs Philip Aldrick foresees the break up of the eurozone.

Having let the crisis get so out of hand, buying that confidence will not be cheap. In Germany, in particular, Angela Merkel may exhaust her remaining political capital if she throws more taxpayer money into creating a viable eurozone firebreak.

Nick Bullman, managing director of ratings agency CheckRisk, believes the biggest risk now is that Germany, the Netherlands and Finland – the strong euro members – leave. A two-tier euro could emerge with the weaker nations on the old euro pegged to the stronger ones' new euro.

He is not alone. The Centre for Economics and Business Research has put the chances of the euro being in its current form in 10 years' time at just 20pc.

And the CEBR is not alone. A poll released today shows that only 32 percent of the Dutch expect the euro zone to survive the current crisis. A majority of 56% deems a euro zone collapse inevitable.

And if you are (or can read) Dutch: Over on DDS Hannibal has a good write up on this weekend and the possible end-game that is going to play out in the coming days.

The news that the European Central Bank presidents are having a teleconference on Sunday, seen in the light of the events [of last Friday], can only be explained as a first stock-taking of the essential procedures for the dismantling of the euro in its current form.

And tomorrow? Tomorrow is going to be another Black Monday (NL).

[UPDATE001] Doesn't this just fit nicely into the clusterf.ck we already have on our hands: Ireland is now signalling their willingness to default. Others are now seriously arguing for Ireland to quit the euro. Austerity has failed.

[UPDATE002] Over on ZeroHedge: Joint Statement From Merkel And Sarkozy On Global Financial Crisis. Short version: We're sticking to the July 21st plan. No mention of ESFS enlargement. It's been decided then: Italy and Spain are too big to bail.

[UPDATE003] And here's your Sunday read (pdf): Europe on the Brink

[UPDATE004] Statement by the President of the ECB:

The ECB will actively implement its Securities Markets Programme.

The ECB is going to buy up Spanish and Italian bonds after all. Merkel and de Jager caved. Again.

On the other hand, this seems to be a plan to buy time until September, when the documents mandating and installing the EFSF should be ratified by all member states. The market may not allow the EUnion that time.

Italian and Spanish debt will be bought up by the ECB, transferring privately held debt (by banks) to publicly held debt. That would be our money. This is a bail-out of the financial sector, nothing more, nothing less. And it doesn't change the end-game. It just makes the hurt a whole lot worse. Because there is no-one in the EUnion willing to face reality. Useless effing SWINE!

[FINAL UPDATE] AEP gives it three weeks.

If we are going into a global double-dip (defined as global growth below 2.5pc), [Italy and Spain] have no chance at all unless the ECB throws all caution to the wind, defenestrates the two German members from the 36th floor of the Eurotower, and embraces QE a l’outrance.

Germany might not like that.

I have a nasty feeling that nothing whatsoever has been resolved.

Do it! Now!

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard again: Please Europe, either put up or break up. He explores possible scenarios for the resolution of the EUnion debt crisis. Here's the one I like best:

Germany and its satellite economies withdraw immediately from EMU (let us say the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Flanders and Luxembourg). This allows the South to enjoy a much-needed devaluation to restore competitiveness without going through a disastrous Fisherite debt deflation. Their contracts would remain in euros, so they would not need to default.

Temporary capital controls and some form of financial repression would obviously been needed for a few weeks. The German bloc would have to stand ready to recapitalize its banking system with €100bn perhaps (peanuts in the bigger picture) to offset the shock effect on sudden exchange losses on Club Med debt. (...)

Markets would very quickly see that the greatest impediments to recovery had been removed. We could rejoice, and breathe a little easier again. My guess is that stock markets would surge in Milan, Madrid and Paris, as occurred in London and Milan after the ERM crisis in 1992.

All I can say is: Do it! Do it now!

I am Fjordman says Peder Jensen

Breaking news: Fjordman has given up his alias; his real name is Peder Jensen (36). He has given an interview in newspaper VG.no that, with his agreement, also published a photo of him. The decision to go public with his real identity comes after he was questioned for hours by Norwegian police about his supposed interaction with terrorist Breivik who in his 1200+ pages cited several works of Fjordman.

Fjordman told the newspaper that not even friends and family knew about his blogging activities and that he has warned them prior to this interview. He himself will now for his own personal safety go into hiding.

Fjordman interview

See also:
The Fjordman Files

[UPDATE001 - KV] Here are a couple of items in EN on the outing of Fjordman:

Breivik police question ‘Fjordman’
Breivik’s alleged influence offers to help police
‘Fjordman’ reveals identity

[UPDATE002 - KV] Here's the news from Gates of Vienna: The Forced Resignation of Fjordman

[UPDATE003 - KV] Well, this makes for a bit chilling read: Fjordman: My Afternoon With The Police

Losing control

Half an hour into Trichet's press conference, just as he announced that after the conference that there might be some changes in the markets, the yields on Italian bonds dropped below the 6% mark, but Portuguese bonds surged. Therefore, according to the market traders, the ECB started buying Portuguese bonds, in the third major intervention in capital markets in the past 24 hours.

But that lasted for only one hour. Or, in the words of ZeroHedge

Total market insanity as the latest intervention halflife is under an hour.

What is clear is that the ECB does not have the muscle to follow-through. Or, as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard sees it: The ECB throws Italy and Spain to the wolves.

In the mean time we have Barosso squealing for a urgent ratification of the proposed EFSF changes, but Germany is deliberately dragging its heals.

“It is not clear how reopening the debate just two weeks after the summit can lead to calming the markets,” said a senior official in Berlin. Other German officials suggested that Mr Barroso was coming to be regarded as a loose cannon in the eurozone debate.

Markets are tanking around the world. The Dutch AEX closed just a hair above the psychological 300 points mark. The Dow Jones, as of this writing is down down 500 points (4.4%) from last close. The euro is crashing against the Swiss franc. The markets at long last seem to realize the cupboard is bare, the chamber is empty.

Government debt to GDP is running high everywhere. When a country (such as the U.S.) runs near 100% gross debt to GDP and household debt combined with huge future deficits, it’s already dead on arrival.

Looking at the next dead-on-arrival candidates leads us to Germany and France. Although superficially it appears as if those countries are running a tight fiscal ship, in reality they are highly exposed to enormous losses via the Troika mechanism they have set up to bailout the weak sisters of Europe. These sisters continue to come for more manna from heaven (tranches), which in turn further weakens the so-called core countries.How many more tranches can France absorb? Finally, France, with a debt to GDP of 88%, is being warned on its bogus, inflated, top-notch credit rating. The mere revelation and recognition of the Troika losses taken by France in particular as well as Germany puts these countries into the tar pit.

In the mean time the newly appointed head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, is under investigation for being complicit in the misuse of public funds in 2008, when she was France's finance minister.

Does all that sound like our 'leaders' still being in control? Strap in tightly and hold on to your hats. Tomorrow is going to be bumpy.

You don't speak for us

Reuters reports that European Council President Herman Van Rompuy may get an enlarged role as coordinator and spokesman for the euro in an effort to impose greater policy discipline in the single currency area.

France and Germany are to make proposals on strengthening euro zone governance later this month and the executive European Commission is also working on ideas to put to an EU summit in October.

The French daily Le Monde reported in its weekend edition that President Nicolas Sarkozy was among those pressing for Van Rompuy to be given more power in the management of the 17-nation euro zone.

A senior French official said: "We are examining governance in the euro zone in the context of the proposals the president wants to make with Chancellor (Angela) Merkel. There are several options on the table. We'll know more at the end of August."

Two senior EU sources said a central issue was trying to put an end to the cacophony among multiple policy-makers which has undermined markets' confidence in Europe's ability to surmount its sovereign debt crisis over the last 18 months.

"There has to be one voice," said a senior official involved in preparing the monthly meetings of the Eurogroup finance ministers of the currency zone.

This if course is neither surprising nor unexpected. It is the way of the EUnion: Never let a good crisis go to waste.

But whatever your new powers, Mr. van Rompuy, do not for a minute presume to speak for us. You may represent the eurocrats, but you do not represent us. We did not vote for you. We didn't want you. You do not speak for us.

You are not a legitimate pretender to the throne. You are an appointed functionary without a democratic mandate. You are of consequence in so far as your capacity to enlarge our misery is tolerated. And the time is drawing near that we will tolerate it no longer.

Not the creed of slaves

In the UK the discussion on re-introduction of capital punishment is back with a vengeance after the UK government has decided to move ahead with government-by-petition. In essence this means that any issue garnering the requisite 100,000 votes is eligible for serious contemplation by parliament. It so happens that Guido Fawkes has set up a petition for the re-introduction of the death penalty. One that is on track to garner the 100,000 votes needed.

This in turn leads to His Grace shining his considerable light on the theological, political and sociological aspects of capital punishment.

This is a post you do not want to miss. At once it captures the unattractiveness and some time necessity of the death penalty, and it's place in Christian doctrine.

St Paul makes it clear that secular rulers have the responsibility to protect those in their charge, and this involves punishing those who act unjustly. When a judge or magistrate inflicts punishment on a condemned person, he or she is not acting on his or her own behalf, but executing God’s own judgement. There is a distinction between afflicting or harming another and avenging, at God’s command, those who themselves inflict harm on others.

Romans 13:4 makes it clear that the secular ruler may use the sword: the ruler who keeps it sheathed while the wicked murder and massacre is guilty of injustice and of dishonouring God who appointed him or her to an office of authority. If it is justifiable to use the sword to defend one’s territory from outside aggression, how can it be unjustifiable not to use it to eradicate seditious intent from within? Of course, like the ‘Just War’, it must be a last resort and not entered into lightly: mercy must always be a consideration. But it is an idolatrous misreading of the NT to assert pacifism in all contexts, or to appeal to the universal ‘sanctity of human life’ of those who have no regard for the concept themselves.

It is a thought-provoking post. Even if you don't like, and don't agree, with the outcome. At the very least the post proves that Christianity is not the creed of slaves, that Nietzsche, or the Dutch Protestant Churches (PKN), is asserting it is.

This geek wants to know

What do we make of this? The following I got via Climate Science, which to me is a solid resource for climate related news.

Today it featured a post by a Harry Dale Huffman, apparently showing the greenhouse effect is non-existent.

In the post the author compares temperatures on Earth (0.04% atmospheric CO2) and Venus (96.5% atmospheric CO2) at equal atmospheric pressures. That is, he compares the temperature on Earth at sea level (~ 1,000 millibar) to the temperature on Venus at the hight where the pressure also is ~ 1,000 millibar. And he finds that the only variable he needs to explain the difference in temperature is the difference in the Suns radiation, due to differences in distance to the Sun.

There's a little more to it then that, of course. For the nitty-gritty I refer you to the post itself. It's not that hard to follow. But the main argument is as I described: 98% of the differences in isobaric temperatures between Venus and Earth is explained by the difference in distance to the Sun. Carbon-dioxide doesn't figure in the comparison, neither does anything else. It isn't needed.

There is no sign whatever of a greenhouse effect on either planet. The fact that the temperature ratios are so close to that predicted solely by their relative distances from the Sun tells us that both atmospheres must be warmed, overall, essentially in the same way, by direct IR solar irradiation from above, not by surface emissions from below. Keeping it simple, the atmospheres must be like sponges, or empty bowls, with the same structure (hydrostatic lapse rate), filled with energy by the incident solar radiation to their capacity to hold that energy.

There is no greenhouse effect on Venus with 96.5% carbon dioxide, and none on the Earth with just a trace of carbon dioxide.

I don't know nearly enough of climate science, or even just atmospheric physics to definitively say this is true or false. However, I know enough to be able to follow the argument and can see no obvious flaw. The argument is presented in a compelling fashion. The idea is beautiful in its simplicity and the results of the analysis seem to hold up to scrutiny. Hence, it has a certain appeal to my inner science geek. Contrary though it is to present-day received wisdom, I am inclined to accept the argument.

Digging around the site and related sites caused me a bit of worry, however. The author is also the author of a book proclaiming that at some point in the distant past the Earth was terra-formed by (alien?) life forms the author refers to as 'the gods'. It has a bit of an 'internet crank' feel about it. You know the type: Wanting to explain everything with everything, on the basis of the flimsiest of correlations or coincidence, because all of it is connected, man!

But does that mean he is wrong on this issue? The results in that particular post are (or seem to be) easy enough to replicate. And it ties in nicely with the recent news that NASA satellite observations showed the Earth is shedding far more heat into space than alarmist computer models have predicted. Moreover, those observations show that the heat radiated off to space increases in times of warming. This seems to put a dent in the cumulative trapping of heat as suggested by the green-house hypothesis of the atmosphere.

So... What is going on here? Is that Venus-Earth temperature comparison the final nail in the coffin of the green-house effect? Anybody care to enlighten the curious (meaning first and foremost: ME!)?

Quote of the day

By Theodore Dalrymple (subscription link):

Herman van Rompuy, the Belgian “president” of Europe whose electoral record makes Stalin’s positively shine (Stalin received too many votes, van Rompuy none at all), is Monnet’s spiritual heir, if one can apply such a term to such men. In a speech last November, van Rompuy — grey of face, grey of suit, grey of speech, and grey of thought — declared national sovereignty in Europe dead, not appearing to notice that his position was approximately that of a murderer who stands over his victim’s corpse muttering, “He’s gone, he’s gone!”

Via

Shitty state

On this blog we've visited the absurd disconnect between citizens victimized by crime and the government and assorted NGO's before. Today brought us the latest attempt to victimize crime victims even further. From Dutchnews.nl: Privacy body cracks down on 'catch a crook' websites.

Shop keepers and others who place films and photographs of people they suspect of committing crimes on websites risk being fined up to €25,000 under new privacy legislation currently being drawn up, the AD reports on Monday.

The national privacy watchdog CPB is closely involved in drawing up the new rules which will be ready by the autumn. The aim is to stop private individuals 'naming and shaming' crime suspects.

CPB chairman Jacob Kohnstamm told the paper that everyone who infringes on other people's privacy, whether or not a crime suspect, could face a hefty fine.

And major internet companies like Google and Facebook could be fined millions of euros if they infringe on people's privacy. At the moment, the CPB can only levy provisional fines.

There have been a number of incidents recently of shop keepers and others using the internet to spread photographs of people they say have committed crimes.

I am not even going to analyse this, or comment on it (much). This is so absurd and blatantly anti-citizen it only reinforces the impression that those that assume to rule us do not deserve to do so. Worse, they do not even attempt to justify their position, their considerable pay, their very existence. They sit in their office, they play with their notions, without any advanced thinking on what they are sowing, what they will some day end up reaping. And reaping they shall, it is inevitable.

But until that time ordinary citizens like you or me will have to suffer under a police and judicial system that does not know how to tackle crime (overall percentage of cases solved last year was well below 10%. And I am being generous here, because I can't find the 2-3% quote I once read), but is very attentive about the privacy of those that rob us, abuse us and kill us for our hard earned possessions. To the point of robbing us from a further 25 grand if we decide to do something ourselves, to do something the police and judiciary simply refuse to do.

What a shitty state we find ourselves in nowadays.